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News & Views
Election Forecast:
Year of the Rat Race

A look at Chinese astrology and the U.S. elections in this month’s Postcard from Shanghai

By Summer Kumar

Posted: January 31, 2008


NON-STOP PRIMARY COVERAGE—plus some very unexpected snowfall—is keeping American residents of Shanghai out of the bars and in front of their computers this month. With adorable rodent faces in red Mandarin hats peeking out from every festive store display, it’s only natural to ask, “What can we expect from our leaders in the Year of the Rat?”

First, a look back on the last few election cycles and their astrological underpinnings. We start with 2000. A disastrous Year of the Dragon led to the contested presidential election and the final victory of Dog George Bush, who combines the dog’s likable qualities—he is straightforward, unpretentious, and friendly—with a tendency towards being lazy, judgmental, stubborn, and quarrelsome. And must we mention Dragon years are associated with dogmatism and tyranny? The loser was Rat Al Gore, but his rat-like industriousness and love of research led to a pretty nice consolation prize: an Academy Award and a Nobel Prize.

In 2004, Canine President Bush doggedly defended his past decisions and his supporters stayed loyal in the Year of the Monkey, while the mild-mannered, indecisive Sheep John Kerry failed to inspire. The equivalent of the Western sign Cancer, gentle Sheep are empathetic, modest, and idealistic, but shy away from conflict. Attacks by aggressive Swiftboaters helped to crush Kerry’s campaign.

And 2008, the Year of the Rat? Forget the obvious associations between a politician and a rat. Traditionally associated with competition and ambition, the Rat is the natural guardian of an election year. The Year of the Rat is one of prosperity, good news for the foundering U.S. economy. But it’s also a year of war, bad news for candidates like Obama, who promise a swift end to the war in Iraq.

This is good news for Republican front-runner and military man McCain, born in the Year of the Rat six cycles ago. Aggressive and obstinate, but also charismatic and likable, Rats are natural leaders. Rats are known as the most organized of the animals, ideal for pushing paper in the Oval Office. Astrologers say Rats can expect promotions this year—but warn that the aging senator and melanoma survivor must watch his health in 2008.

Rats are strongly at odds with both Pigs and Oxen, promising a tough fight with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, respectively. Like all Pigs, Clinton is thoughtful and compassionate and loyal to a fault (happily for Bill). Obama is a classic Ox: idealistic and ethical, a natural leader who was born for great things. He is patient but assertive, strong-willed, and tries to run an honorable campaign. 2008 will be a fantastic year for eloquent oxen, especially for those working in the public sphere. But it’s also a particularly lucky year for Ox finances: does that mean Obama will find a better-paying gig than President of the United States?

Meanwhile, Monkey Rudy Giuliani and Snake John Edwards are out of the race, with Giuliani endorsing the Monkey’s sometime-adversary, the Rat. Obama might look to Edwards as a potential running mate: Oxen and Snakes make good partners.

What about Pigs Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney—generous and caring but overly cautious and lacking the common touch? It’s too soon to say, but some I Ching analysts have hinted that this coming year is one for women in positions of power….

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